Friday, November 30, 2012

Analyzing the MLS SuperDraft: The GA debate

Mock drafts and prospect lists are now showing up including ones produced by the main media and the league media itself. Most players listed are non-seniors so to be drafted need to be given a  Generation Adidas contract.

As with everything MLS I shake my head at the media always expressing classic cliche lines like this 18 year old player is pro ready with are friend Ives or MLSSoccer.com being the worse at this. A NBA comparison to MLS draft analysis is Paul Sturgess should be to top rated prospect in Basketball not because of what he's done but because he is 7 foot 7. Although I would just blame paper talk for being stupid but then the draft comes and the MLS gives many of these players GA contracts and they are drafted.

Common Sense tells me GA is a failed system mainly because MLS does not sell players, there is not a huge demand for US players in leagues outside the MLS and with such limited resources/time being used by MLS in scouting investing in potential is destined to be an expensive mistake.

Yes there are exception like Adu and Shea but since 1997 the MLS has given 172 players GA status which includes guarantee contracts that are higher than most establish players in the league. On average during their first season these players have played 12 games and 769 minutes. Career Stats are not much better with an average 78 total games and 4846 minutes.

Although I think the most interesting comparison is when you compare these GA players to Seniors players drafted in the exact same draft. Since 2007, when the MLS started releasing player salaries, of the top 120 players drafted 53 have been GA's and 67 Seniors. Of those picks the league paid the GA's a guarantee of $6,369,202 compared to the seniors who got $3,257,990 for their first season of play. The GA's played a total of 758 games and 47746 minutes in their first season compared to the the Seniors who played 1197 games and 77334 minutes. In the second season the GA's played 750 games/50929 to Seniors 957/62427 and third season in the league GA's 547/38239 to Seniors 765/55269 and so far career totals are GA's 2591 games and 177052 minutes to seniors 3913 games to 271212 minutes. 

Here are a GA/Senior player comparison breakdown since 2007

Looking beyond the stats you can look at player market value, Transfermarkt.de has GA and Seniors currently equal in regards to Total player value. Which completely contradicts the MLS GA campaign since the main reason we have the GA system in place is so the MLS can protect it's rights of these NCAA/US base players on the open football market. 

I'm actually a strong supporter of the US college system as a development league for the MLS and those who disagree I believe don't understand the professional game. Professional soccer isn't a sport played by 17/18 years old like all professional sport it's a sport played by Men.The average age for a professional soccer player in leagues around the World is 25 years of age. Your average senior complete his college career around 22 which a normal time to start a pro career well a GA is 19  which is young for a professional. For example Last season the EPL only had 7 players under 21 play more than 20 games - (Phil Jones, Steven Caulker, Victor Moses, Aaron Ramsey, Grant Hanley, Davide Santon and Jason Lowe) where the MLS had 15 players do the same this season (Diego Fagúndez, Luis Gil, Andy Nájar, Jack McInerney, Fabián Castillo, Kevin Rowe, Juan Agudelo, Perry Kitchen, Andrew Wenger, Gershon Koffie, Danny Mwanga, Reggie Lambe, Ashtone Morgan, Amobi Okugo, and Zac MacMath). The reason clubs play young players is not to bring success on the pitch but to increase the exposure of players for the transfer market. So the fact the MLS is encouraging the signing and playing of young players but at the same time not actively trying to sell these players provides me just another example the league doesn't fully understand the global game.  

Since the MLS doesn't have a proper youth or reserve league or loan system a complete college career can give scouts around 100 games of visual and statistical data to evaluate a players potential pro career and based on the numbers above the league has saved over $3,000,000 by doing this.  So my view is if scouted correctly the college game can provide a great resource in finding talent although we need to get rid of the GA system since players need to be evaluated on performance and no longer speculation especially by so called authority who know very little about the game.       


  

MLS Super Draft Review: Generation Adidas vs Senior Output - 2012



1st Year Salary was what the player got as a guarantee salary in his first season of play via the MLS Union
Value is the current 2012 market value provided by the site Transfermarkt.de 
Statistical data include games and minutes played to show how much the player was used.
1st/2nd/3rd is the regular MLS season statistics the first 3 years of player career
Career GP/Min is the player career MLS regular season statistics to the end of the 2012 season 

MLS Super Draft Review: Generation Adidas vs Senior Output - 2011



1st Year Salary was what the player got as a guarantee salary in his first season of play via the MLS Union
Value is the current 2012 market value provided by the site Transfermarkt.de 
Statistical data include games and minutes played to show how much the player was used.
1st/2nd/3rd is the regular MLS season statistics the first 3 years of player career
Career GP/Min is the player career MLS regular season statistics to the end of the 2012 season 

MLS Super Draft Review: Generation Adidas vs Senior Output - 2010


1st Year Salary was what the player got as a guarantee salary in his first season of play via the MLS Union
Value is the current 2012 market value provided by the site Transfermarkt.de 
Statistical data include games and minutes played to show how much the player was used.
1st/2nd/3rd is the regular MLS season statistics the first 3 years of player career
Career GP/Min is the player career MLS regular season statistics to the end of the 2012 season 

MLS Super Draft Review: Generation Adidas vs Senior Output - 2009



1st Year Salary was what the player got as a guarantee salary in his first season of play via the MLS Union
Value is the current 2012 market value provided by the site Transfermarkt.de 
Statistical data include games and minutes played to show how much the player was used.
1st/2nd/3rd is the regular MLS season statistics the first 3 years of player career
Career GP/Min is the player career MLS regular season statistics to the end of the 2012 season 

MLS Super Draft Review: Generation Adidas vs Senior Output - 2008



1st Year Salary was what the player got as a guarantee salary in his first season of play via the MLS Union
Value is the current 2012 market value provided by the site Transfermarkt.de 
Statistical data include games and minutes played to show how much the player was used.
1st/2nd/3rd is the regular MLS season statistics the first 3 years of player career
Career GP/Min is the player career MLS regular season statistics to the end of the 2012 season 

MLS Super Draft Review: Generation Adidas vs Senior Output - 2007
















1st Year Salary was what the player got as a guarantee salary in his first season of play via the MLS Union
Value is the current 2012 market value provided by the site Transfermarkt.de 
Statistical data include games and minutes played to show how much the player was used.
1st/2nd/3rd is the regular MLS season statistics the first 3 years of player career
Career GP/Min is the player career MLS regular season statistics to the end of the 2012 season 

Thursday, November 29, 2012

2012-2013 European Football/Soccer 50 Breakthrough Players

Continuing my work in proving that statistical analysis is a useful tool in player evaluation I thought it be interesting to look at these leagues 1/3 way through the 2012-2013 season and based on statistical performance and potential value showcase 50 players who I believe are having a Breakthrough performance. 

So far I've been quite pleased with the results of my previous work in this field.My 2011-2012 European Football Prospect Lists - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/08/2011-2012-european-football-league.html, have shown their value so far including scoring 87 goals in this season UEFA Champions League. I'm hoping that this new group of players will do the same although dealing with such a limited amount of data at this point its hard to tell if these players are capable of maintaining their current output long term.   

This data includes live 2012-2013 statistics in its analysis, so each player analysis, depending on the league, is based on 10 to 18 games played. Using this limited data in comparison to a complete season means defenders and goalkeepers are under represented in the list, so I may create an alternative list specific to these positions. I may also update this list mid-way and 2/3 through the current season and final grade all players through my top 10 prospect lists for all leagues once the current season is complete. 

Enjoy the work and feel free in passing along your views and opinions via my twitter account at https://twitter.com/ENBSports

Pawel Wszolek, Polonia Warsaw







David Wotherspoon, Hibernian








Nahki Wells, Bradford City







Tony Watt, Celtic FC









Kevin Volland, TSG Hoffenhiem








Sunday, November 25, 2012

Jacob Mellis, Barnsley








Lazar Markovic, Partizan







Jeremain Lens, PSV Eindhoven











Erik Lamela, AS Roma








Andrej Kramaric, Lokomotiva Zagreb










Kasper Kusk, AaB Aalborg







Aron Johannsson, AGF Aarhus














Joaozinho, FK Krasnodar








Thomas Ince, Blackpool







Philipp Hosiner, Fk Austria








Lewis Holtby, Schalke 04










Izet Hajrovic, Grasshoppers








Leigh Griffiths, Hibernian









Ninos Gouriye, Heracles Almelo








Alfred Finnbogason, SC Heerenveen